Looking into the Crystal Ball

Yesterday Bob Miller gave us a peek at a new division of Harper he just launched: Harper Studio. Miller has a long history in the industry, including serving as President of Hyperion which he founded for Disney in 1990. Hyperion has published over 1500 books, 200 of which have been national bestsellers (including Oprah's Make the Connection, Mitch Albom's The Five People You Meet in Heaven). Not too shabby.

Harper Studio plans to operate without many of the traditional publishing models that we all use and that cause so many headaches. They will be completely non-returnable, pay no co-op, keep advances very low with the promise of a 50%/50% profit share, and create a publisher website so popular it can derive income from advertising. Sounds dreamy, doesn't it? Their first two books are out in May so we'll be able to watch the results soon.

In the meantime, here are Miller's Top Ten Predictions of what the future holds for book publishing:

1. The traditional platform of books will diminish. Don’t be wedded to it.
2. We are going to see dramatic downward pressure on pricing. Already Amazon is offering all Kindle books for $9.95. Kindle may be a loss leader that leads to a paradigm shift.
3. We'll need to dramatically downscale the cost of what we do or else our very slim margins will go away and kill our business. It's 3-5 years before this comes to a head. Our salvation is to fix unearned advances, returns, and high overhead.
4. Readers attention spans will continue to shorten and we'll need to publish shorter books.
5. Companies that survive and thrive will need to be open to new ways to make money. Shipping an object and getting paid for it may be a thing of the past. It's time to open up to subscription models. Could you sell chapters as the book is being written and give the physical book is a bonus? Avon's website is now big enough to well ad space. Selling books is going to be just one piece of the revenue model.
6. Marketing will be a year round activity. Two weeks around pub date does not do it anymore. Author will need to communicate while writing the book and long after. http://www.thelongtail.com/ is a great example of this.
7. The wall between the publisher and consumer will come down. It's time to explain where the money is going and why it's fair.
8. Authors need to partner with publishers, the days of the publisher doing all the work is over.
9. Appetite for visual material is there and needs to be fed. Publishers must get better at clearing rights, etc. and satisfying that audience.
10. We'll need to get to market much faster. Immediacy is the thing now. Predicting a year or two out is almost impossible.